Study on the Fluctuation Rule of Potato Price in China—The Empirical Analysis Based on X-12 and H-P Filtering Model
LI Hui-shang，MA Juan-juan，SHEN Chen，YANG Wei，LIU Ji-fang*
Agricultural Information Institute，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of Ministry of Agriculture，Beijing 100081，China
As an important agro-products，the price of the potato was influenced by many factors and discussed in the article. Base on the data of the monthly price of national wholesale market from January 2005 to December 2015，the fluctuation ruler were studied with X-12 a nd H-P filtering models and the seasonal，
cycle，trend and irregular fluctuations were deposed. The results showed that the main reason of seasonal price fluctuation was the seasonal production，the increasing cost and consumption had pushed up the price increasing in the long trend although the overall would be flat，the cycle fluctuation was obvious and the average period was about 47 months，and the weather changes and market events were the main factors affecting of the price irregular
fluctuation. Some countermeasures were given such as promoting production，enhancing the whole industry chain information analysis and early-warning and the price insurance system，promoting the convergence development of primary，secondary and tertiary industries to ensure the steady growth of the income of potato farmers，improve the balance of market supply and demand and smooth the marketing fluctuation.
李辉尚 马娟娟 沈 辰 杨 唯 刘继芳*. 我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究——基于X-12 和H-P 滤波法的实证分析[J]. 中国蔬菜, 2017, 1(2): 60-.
LI Hui-shang，MA Juan-juan，SHEN Chen，YANG Wei，LIU Ji-fang*. Study on the Fluctuation Rule of Potato Price in China—The Empirical Analysis Based on X-12 and H-P Filtering Model. China Vegetables, 2017, 1(2): 60-.
