AN Min, CAO Shanshan, LU Hongtao, KONG Fantao, LIU Jifang
Based on the wholesale market price data of garlic in China over the past 20 years,this paper conducts a comprehensive and multi-dimensional decomposition and analysis of the garlic wholesale market price in China by using the CensusX12 seasonal adjustment model,the HP filter decomposition model,etc.,and deeply explores the characteristics and causes of abnormal fluctuations in garlic prices in China. The results show that garlic prices in China are affected by factors such as market supply and demand,extreme weather,market speculation,and information asymmetry,and abnormal fluctuations occur from time to time,presenting distinct seasonal,trend,cyclical and random characteristics. In view of this,in order to effectively stabilize the abnormal fluctuations in garlic prices and truly achieve the goal of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of garlic,a series of targeted and practical suggestions are put forward:give full play to the key role of government macro-control,establish a garlic industry expert group composed of industry authorities,industry associations,enterprises,and field experts,and through the establishment of production and sales monitoring systems,supply and demand conferences,information release systems,etc.,timely judge the production and sales situation of garlic,guide the operation of the garlic market,and promote the high-quality development of the garlic industry.