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| Studies on Geothermal Temperature Forecasting Technology in Solar
Greenhouse |
| YANG Dan1，2，XUE Xiao-ping2*，LI Nan2，WANG Hong-bo1，DU Hai-bo1 |
1Metrology Bureau of Hegang City， Hegang 154100， Heilongjiang， China； 2Climate Center of Shandong Province，
Jinan 250031， Shandong， China |
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Abstract According to the meteorological data observed inside and outside the solar greenhouse
（December to next February）from 2007 to 2011，this paper analyzes the geothermal temperature changing
characteristic inside and outside the solar greenhouse，and its relationship with meteorological elements
inside and outside the solar greenhouse under different weather conditions：sunny，overcast and cloudy
days．Taking the metrological factors inside and outside of solar greenhouse as promoter，we constructed
a hourly geothermal temperature of 10 cm forecast model for 3 days in the future．The results indicated
that the geothermal temperature inside the solar greenhouse was closely related to the temperature．
The geothermal temperature of 10 cm inside the greenhouse was highly correlated with the lowest and
highest temperatures outside the solar greenhouse on that day and the day before；and in the 3 days
hourly geothermal temperature of 10 cm forecast model，the forecast model RMSE for sunny，overcast
and cloudy days were 0.7，0.6，0.8 ℃，respectively. The forecast model accuracy for overcast day is
higher than that for sunny and cloudy days．The forecast model RMSE of 00：00-07：00，08：00-
17：00 and 18：00-23：00 were 0.6，0.7，0.6 ℃，respectively．And the forecast model accuracy of
00：00-07：00，18：00-23：00 were higher than that of 08：00-17：00．The forecast model RMSE
for the next day，the next 2 days and the next 3 days were 0.5，0.6，0.8 ℃，and the forecast accuracy
was gradually decreased with the prediction time extension.
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Received: 16 April 2013
Published: 23 June 2013
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