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Impact of External Shock on Fluctuation of Vegetable Price —Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data VAR Model |
LUO Chao-ping1,LI Wei-yi2,ZHAI Qiong3 |
1College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; 2Industrial Policy
and Regulation Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100125, China; 3College of Economics and Management,
Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China |
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Abstract On the basis of building panel vector auto-regression model(PVAR),the authors
empirically analyzed the impact of external shock on fluctuation of vegetable price;and found that
except GDP growth rate,which had a significant impact on price fluctuation,other variables contributed
only 1.5%-3.3% to price variation. Meanwhile,considering the impact from variable,when given the
subsidies-LBT a standard differential impact,the vegetable price-LJG would response negatively and
reach a maximum in the third period.When given the vegetable disaster area LCZ a standard deviation,
the vegetable price - LJG would initially turn a negative response then to positive response in the third
period. When given GDP growth a deviation shock,vegetable price-LJG showed a distinct positive
response.When given the LCZSR a deviation shock,vegetable price-LJG showed negative response.
Therefore,the effect of external shock to vegetable price is not ideal,there exists hysteresis qualityin its response to partial external shock. Consequently,building a sound vegetable industry market
mechanism,improving the efficiency of vegetable circulation,and ensuring the balance between
vegetable supply and demand are important measures to inhibit t he violent fluctuation of vegetable price.
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Received: 23 March 2013
Published: 15 April 2013
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[1] |
. [J]. China Vegetables, 2017, 1(11): 62-69. |
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